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arutkowski



http://www.grape.org.pl/sites/default/files/user/CV%20AR%20pl%20lip20.pdf

http://www.grape.org.pl/sites/default/files/user/CV%20AR%20en%20jul20.pdf

Opublikowane | Published

  • Evaluating an old-age voluntary saving scheme under incomplete rationality | Gospodarka Narodowa

    We provide ex ante welfare, fiscal and general macroeconomic evaluation of the voluntary old-age saving scheme recently introduced in Poland (Pracownicze Plany Kapitałowe, Employees’ Capital Plans). ECPs provide tax redemptions as well as lump-sum transfers with the objective to foster old-age savings. Reduction in capital income tax revenues and a rise in expenditure needs to be compensated through adjustment in other taxes. We employ an overlapping generations model (OLG) to gauge the plausible magnitude of the macroeconomic and welfare effects and provide insights in terms of microfoundations of these adjustments. Our OLG model features voluntary participation and innovates relative to the literature by introducing agents with hand-to-mouth preferences. We find relatively high crowding out of private savings. In our preferred specification roughly 0.08 to 0.09 PLN of each 1 PLN allocated to ECPs are actually new savings, the rest being displaced from unincentivized private voluntary savings. The plausible values of the effective capital growth range between 0.03 and 0.42 of 1 PLN in ECPs. ECPs reduce welfare of the fully rational agents, unless they offer a sufficiently large annuity. ECPs provide consumption smoothing and interest income to HTM agents.


    Attached to this publication are data covering the sensitivity analyses for the alternative calibrations of the share of incompletely rational agents in the economy. The file comprises data and program files (stata *.do files) which delivers the replication of tables in figures in the paper for the alternative shares of hand-to-mouth (HTM) agents in population. 

    Artur
    Rutkowski

W toku | Work in progress

  • Fiscal incentives to pension savings - are they efficient?

    Financing consumption of the elderly in the face of the projected increase in life expectancy is a key challenge for economic policy. Moreover, standard structural models with fully rational agents suggest that about 50-60 percent of old-age consumption is financed with voluntary savings, even in the presence of a fairly generous public pension system. This is clearly inconsistent with either the data, or the alarming simulations of old-age poverty in the years to come. Old-age saving (OAS) schemes are widely used policy instruments to address this challenge, but structural evaluations of such instruments remain rare. We develop a framework with incompletely rational agents: lacking financial literacy and experiencing commitment difficulties. We study a broad selection of OAS schemes and find that they raise welfare of financially illiterate agents and to a lesser extent improve welfare of agents with a high degree of time inconsistency. They also reduce the incidence of poverty at old age. Unfortunately, these instruments are fiscally costly, induce considerable crowd-out and direct fiscal transfers mostly to those agents, who need it the least.

    Joanna
    Tyrowicz
    Krzysztof
    Makarski
    Artur
    Rutkowski


Under construction.

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