ogurshev

Oleg
Gurshev

Research interests: applied macroeconomics, international public economics, economic integration, trade, foreign direct investment, post-Soviet economies.

Data analysis: multi-dimensional panel data, time series, Bayesian methods, GIS.

Languages: English (fluent), Polish (intermediate), French (basic), Russian (native).

Personal web page: https://sites.google.com/view/oleggurshev

Teaching experience: Microeconomics (I, III), International Trade Theory.

NCN grants employment: Preludium 20, Sonata 12 BIS.

Journals published in: Eurasian Geography and Economics, Economic Systems, Baltic Journal of Economics, Comparative Economic Studies, Journal of Economic Integration, Eurasian Economic Review, and others.

 Referee work: Oxford Economic Papers, Applied Economics, Europe-Asia Studies, Post-Soviet Affairs, Comparative Economic Studies, Cogent Economics & Finance, Eurasian Economic Review.




https://www.grape.org.pl/sites/default/files/user/Gurshev_Vita_CV_jun_25.pdf

W toku | Work in progress

  • Trade shock and labor earnings: difference-in-differences evidence from local labor markets

    This paper investigates the impact of an export demand shock triggered by the 2014 Russian import ban on labor earnings in Poland. We implement an event-study using traditional and doubly-robust difference-in-differences estimators, supplemented by a variance decomposition. Our findings indicate that the shock has caused substantial consequences for regional inequality. Specifically, we document a persistent decline in average relative earnings between the exposed group of counties and the rest of the country. The analysis of between-group variance shows that the import ban has reduced the earnings premium, shifting the exposed counties from relatively higher-earnings positions toward the national average.

    Oleg
    Gurshev
  • Shocks and income dynamics

    This article examines the contribution of supply and demand shocks to income dynamics in an international panel setting. Leveraging the newly created Global Repository of Income Dynamics and an alternative identification of structural shocks, we study how unanticipated disturbances affect the distribution of innovations to income processes. We distinguish between permanent versus transitory structural shocks, as well as global (U.S.) versus local (domestic) shocks. Our results show that structural shocks originating in the U.S. exert larger and more persistent effects on innovations than domestic shocks. These changes are procyclical for skewness,suggesting greater income risk in downturns. In contrast to previous findings, we also document a countercyclical  behavior of dispersion of innovations in response to structural shocks originating in the U.S. Finally, we consider the role of different transmission channels. Domestic shocks mainly affect skewness and decrease income volatility. Trade and financial channels drive the transmission of U.S. demand and supply shocks, respectively, whereas expectations play a limited role.

     

    Oleg
    Gurshev
    Lucas
    van der Velde